April 5, 2026
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The halfway point of the Champions League knockout round has arrived and there is still a lot at stake across the continent.

Although there were several convincing victories in the eight first legs, no advantage is insurmountable in Europe’s top competition. Known for its unexpected twists and outright drama, especially during the knockout phase, chaos is expected in next week’s decisive second leg matches.

Next week we will know the complete cast of the Champions League round of 16, which could have a huge impact on the final destination of the trophy. Predicting which team he will be on at the end of another successful campaign is virtually impossible.

Fortunately, Opta’s supercomputer has been working in overdrive, calculating which teams will advance from the knockout playoffs, as well as who the most likely winner of the tournament is.

Who goes to the round of 16 according to the Opta Supercomputer?

Newcastle United practically have their place in the round of 16 assured of the final as the most glamorous winner of the first leg of the playoffs. After the arduous trip to Qarabag and winning 6-1, they can relax in St. James’s Park, especially with a 99.77% chance of advancing to the next round, a figure that, in fact, seems a little low considering their overall advantage of five goals.

Anthony Gordon

Qarabag FK v Newcastle United FC – UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Knockout Play-off First Leg | Christian Kaspar-Bartke – UEFA/GettyImages

He Bayer Leverkusen triumphed over Olympiacos in one of the least flashy playoffs of the playoffs, winning 2-0 in Greece, which gives them a great opportunity to qualify for the round of 16. Galatasaray was a more convincing winnerdefeating 10-man Juventus 5-2 in Türkiye. They should succeed globally.

The current European champion, Paris Saint-Germainhad to come back from two goals to beat their compatriot Monaco 3-2 at the Stade Louis II, and they are expected to complete the victory in the capital next week. The supercomputer gives them a 93.30% chance of reaching the round of 16.

The outlook also looks promising for the participants in the 2023-24 Champions League final: Borussia Dortmund beat Atalanta 2-0 in their first match, while he Real Madrid won 1-0 in a match plagued by controversies at Benfica’s home. The historic European champions have an 87.28% chance of maintaining their home advantage.

TOPSHOT-FBL-EUR-C1-DORTMUND-ATALANTA

TOPSHOT-FBL-EUR-C1-DORTMUND-ATALANTA | INA FASSBENDER/GettyImages

Despite also winning by two goals, with a 3-1 victory against Inter, last season’s runners-up, Bodø/Glimt, the surprise, only has a 57.38% chance of advancing after his visit to San Siro. Having beaten Manchester City, Atlético de Madrid and now Inter in their last three games, they cannot be ruled out in Milan.

The only first leg that ended in a draw was 3-3 between the Atlético de Madrid and Club Brugge in Belgium. As expected, with home advantage and a superior squad for the second leg, the Spaniards are expected to emerge victorious.

Club

Chances of passing the round

Newcastle

99.77%

Bayer Leverkusen

93.67

Galatasaray

93.63%

Paris Saint-Germain

93.30%

Borussia Dortmund

89.24%

Real Madrid

87.28%

Atlético de Madrid

74.46%

Bodø/Glimt

57.38%

Inter Milan

42.62%

Club Bruges

25.54%

Benfica

12.72%

Atalanta

10.76%

AS Monaco

6.70%

Juventus

6.37%

Olympiakos

6.33%

Karabagh

0.23%


Who will win the UEFA Champions League according to the Opta Supercomputer?

Previews - 2025/26 European Club Football Season Kick-off

Previews – 2025/26 European Club Football Season Kick-off | Claudio Lavenia – UEFA/GettyImages

The first leg of the playoffs has not altered the situation much in terms of the winner of the competition. The supercomputer continues to firmly support the Arsenal to win his first Champions League titlewith eight consecutive victories in the league phase that support their loyalty to the Gunners.

He Bayern Munich They only dropped points precisely against Arsenal in the league phase and their magnificent performance on the continent makes them the second favorite. The Bundesliga giant has stumbled in its league in recent weeks, but still has more than enough firepower to claim another European crown.

The Premier League is well represented in the top five, with Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea with good chances of achieving glory. All three have won the competition in the last seven years and have secured important victories in the league stage, although they have not been flawless.

PSG has the opportunity to defend its titlesomething rare in Europe for any team other than Real Madrid, but Luis Enrique’s former club, Barcelona is a slight favorite according to the supercomputer. In fact, both teams could meet in the round of 16.

Newcastle can boast of having better chances than Real Madrid of winning the title, largely due to the status of the knockout phase. If both reach the last 16, few would suggest the Magpies have a better chance of lifting the trophy than the 15-time champions.

Club

Chances of winning the Champions League

Arsenal

26.86%

Bayern Munich

15.19%

Manchester City

12.75%

Liverpool

9.48%

Chelsea

7.14%

FC Barcelona

5.75%

PSG

5.53%

Newcastle

4.47%

Real Madrid

3.10%

Sporting Lisbon

2.02%

Tottenham

1.85%

Borussia Dortmund

1.41%

Inter Milan

1.35%

Bayer Leverkusen

1.25%


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