The UEFA Champions League enters its decisive stage with the 16 best teams already defined and a forecast that is beginning to set a trend. An Opta supercomputer projected how the knockout phase will unfold and points out that this edition could crown an unprecedented champion. Statistics, always cold, have already chosen their main candidate.
Arsenal lead the odds
The big favorite is Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s team had an impeccable league phase: eight wins in eight games and without being at a disadvantage for a single second. Although he never won the Champions League and carries old questions about his competitive nature, his continental performance changed the narrative.
Behind them appears Bayern Munich, which maintains its historical weight and has decisive figures. The Bavarian team only stumbled against Arsenal in London and is still considered a maximum risk rival in back-and-forth matches.
Do you see your team? 👀
The last 16 is locked in 🔒#UCL pic.twitter.com/dTQAgc6x4N
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) February 25, 2026
Completing the podium of candidates are the English Manchester City and Liverpool (10.44%), two teams accustomed to decisive moments. Chelsea and Barcelona are further back.
Supercomputer predicts new winner in 2025-26
|
Classification |
Equipment |
Chances of winning the Champions League |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Arsenal |
29.45% |
|
2. |
Bayer Munich |
14.56% |
|
3. |
Manchester City |
13.42% |
|
4. |
Liverpool |
10.44% |
|
5. |
Chelsea |
6.69% |
|
6. |
FC Barcelona |
6.16% |
|
7. |
PSG |
4.27% |
|
8. |
Newcastle |
3.94% |
|
9. |
Real Madrid |
3.90% |
|
10. |
Sporting CP |
2.08% |
|
11. |
Tottenham |
1.67% |
|
12. |
Atlético de Madrid |
1.39% |
|
13. |
Bayern Leverkusen |
0.78% |
|
14. |
Atalanta |
0.71% |
|
15. |
Bodø/Glimt |
0.29% |
|
16. |
Galatasaray |
0.25% |
PSG and Real Madrid, conditioned by the team
One of the most striking data is the low percentage of the current champion, Paris Saint-Germain. The main reason is the complex match that awaits them in the round of 16, where they could face Barcelona or Chelsea, two important rivals. The survivor of that duel would then have a demanding matchup against a Newcastle United team that arrives after a devastating series in the playoff.
Real Madrid’s position is also surprising. The top all-time winner of the tournament appears with only a 3.90% chance of winning his 16th crown, even below Newcastle. His European experience does not seem to have the same value in mathematical projection.
A supercomputer predicts how the Champions League knockout stages will unfold
|
Equipment |
Possible rival in the round of 16 |
Probability of reaching the quarterfinals |
|---|---|---|
|
Arsenal |
Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen |
85.67% |
|
Liverpool |
Atlético or Galatasaray |
76.93% |
|
Bayern Munich |
Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen |
76.05% |
|
Manchester City |
Real Madrid o Bodø/Glimt |
75.27% |
|
Tottenham |
Atlético or Galatasaray |
56.90% |
|
Chelsea |
PSG o Newcastle |
54.67% |
|
Barcelona |
PSG o Newcastle |
53.97% |
|
Sporting CP |
Real Madrid o Bodø/Glimt |
52.95% |
According to the simulation, Arsenal has an 85.67% chance of reaching the quarterfinals and a 62.43% chance of reaching the semifinals. Bayern, for its part, has a close to 48% chance of reaching the top four. The table avoids a crossover between the two until a hypothetical final, which fuels the possibility of an outcome between the two top favorites.
Most likely semi-finalists
|
Equipment |
Chance of reaching the semi-final |
|---|---|
|
Arsenal |
62.43% |
|
Bayern Munich |
48.23% |
|
Liverpool |
44.48% |
|
Manchester City |
38.11% |
Most likely finalists
|
Equipment |
Probability of reaching the final |
Probability of winning the final |
|---|---|---|
|
Arsenal |
46.17% |
29.45% |
|
Bayern Munich |
29.25% |
14.56% |
In the final projection, Arsenal has a 46.17% chance of playing in the final and maintains the highest percentage of winning the title. Bayern follows with a 29.25% chance of reaching the decisive match.
The figures will change after the draw, but the message is already installed: if the statistics do not fail, Europe could have a new king.
MORE NEWS ABOUT THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
