A Premier that can be decided by a goal

The Premier League is on fire. Manchester City’s victory in the direct duel for the title this Sunday against Arsenal (2-1) has left the fight for the English championship more even than ever. Pep Guardiola’s men are three points behind the Gunners with one game in hand – they will have to play against Crystal Palace – and have turned the question of goal-average into a possibly determining factor in deciding the future champion.

In the English championship, in the event of a tie on points, The tiebreaker comes from that general goal-average and not from the direct duel.as happens in the Spanish league. In other words, the difference between goals scored and goals conceded could decide the balance decisively on the last day of the championship.

With the victory at the Etihad against Arteta’s men, Guardiola’s City is left with a goal difference of +36 while the Gunners put that balance at +37. Or what is the same, if City won their match against Crystal Palace by the minimum, the technical tie would be a reality. We would then have to go to the next scenario, but the truth is that, with five rounds ahead, everything indicates that this goal difference will not end at the same point in the case of both.

Winning, but doing so comfortably, becomes more important than ever in the history of the Premier. So it’s time to take a look at both of their calendars and cast the pool. Guardiola’s men have three home games and three away games ahead of them. The ‘citizens’ first get two consecutive outings against Burnley y Everton to continue with the match in Manchester against Brentfordthe exit to Bournemouth and the last two home games against Crystal Palace -the postponed match- and the Aston Villa.

The only precedent, favorable to City

Arsenal’s calendar seems somewhat more affordable, a priori. Five games ahead, three at home and two away from the Emirates. Newcastle y Fulham first as a local, visit the West Ham, Burnley at home and the last day at home before the Crystal Palace. Of course, in between those first three games, a demanding Champions League semi-final tie that could end up taking its toll on Arteta’s men.

Interestingly, the only time in Premier League history (since 1992) that a championship was decided by this goal difference was in the campaign 11-12 y The winner on that occasion was Manchester Citywho beat their eternal rival, United, by a goal difference of +64 vs +56 for the ‘red devils’ in a championship that both finished with 89 points. It was that Premier League with Agüero’s goal, with Pellegrini on the ‘skyblues’ bench.

Five games – six in the case of City – ahead and two teams evenly matched to the last millimeter. “Practically the league starts again. It’s a new Premier”he said Arteta At the end of the match, will we see a championship that is decided by a single goal difference?