Bayern and Arsenal, favorites to reach the Budapest final according to the Elo-MARCA model

Four teams, two qualifiers and a final in Budapest on May 30. The Champions League 2025-26 reaches its decisive stretch with a semi-final draw in which the numbers have a clear opinion: eBayern Munich and Arsenal are the favorites to be in Hungary. But football, as Diego Simeone knows well, does not always obey the models.

MARK has developed a probabilistic model based on the ClubElo Elo ratings – the most rigorous classification system in European football, which weights each result according to the level of the rival and the home team and based on more than one million matches since 1955 – with data updated as of April 16, 2026. The result is a map of probabilities that goes beyond simply who is better. It incorporates home field advantage (+65 Elo points for playing at home), the historical rate of draws in the Champions League (27%) and the two-legged knockout model, with extra time and penalties 50/50 in case of overall equality.

From this, assigns Bayern 56.2% of options to qualify against PSG, and to Arsenal 72.3% against Atlético de Madrid.

PSG – Bayern: the most even duel that the Allianz will resolve

Bayern (Elo 2021) leads PSG (Elo 1974) by just 47 points, the smallest difference of the four European semi-finals that will be played this week. In terms of classification probabilities, The model assigns Germans 56.2% compared to 43.8% for Parisians. A statistical toss-up disguised as a duel between two of the most powerful clubs on the planet.

The key nuance is in the distribution of the parties. He PSG He plays the first leg at home and that makes him slight favorite in the first act: 38.4% probability of victory for those of Luis Enrique against the 34.6% del Bavariawith a 27% tie. That is to say, in Paris there is no clear favorite. The balance is almost complete.

The returnhowever, changes the scenario radically. At the Allianz Arena, Bayern transforms: 47.9% probability of victory for those of Vincent Kompany, against only 25.1% for PSG. Whoever arrives at Allianz with something to defend will have a huge advantage; whoever manages to climb it, a mountain to climb.

The recent history does not help PSG. In the league phase this season, Bayern won at the Parc des Princes 1-2 with a double from Luis Díaz. The French know that defeating the Germans in Europe is not easy. But they also know that they are defending champions, that their Elo has grown more than 30 points since October and that Luis Enrique knows no fear.

Atlético-Arsenal: Simeone needs a calculated miracle

The model is compelling: Arsenal (Elo 2050) is the strongest team in Europe right now, and the difference with the Atlético de Madrid (Elo 1862) is 188 points. To understand the magnitude of that gapit is enough to know that in the quarterfinals Arsenal led Sporting CP by 196 points. That is to say, Simeone’s Atlético is, in the eyes of the model, almost at the level of the Portuguese team. But you also have to remember that Sporting fell 1-0 on aggregate and was about to get the English into trouble.

Las probabilities classification assigned to Arsenal 72.3% compared to Atlético’s 27.7%. But there is one fact that explains everything and that turns this tie into something different than it seems: el Arsenal are favorites even playing at the Metropolitano. The first leg on Wednesday, April 29 in Madrid gives the ‘Gunners’ a 48.9% chance of winning that matchcompared to only one 24.1% of Atlético. A draw – 27% – is the red and white team’s best ally in their own stadium.

There is Simeone’s plan, although he would never call it that: hold on at home, not lose, and take the ‘Gunners’ to the Emirates alive. Because on the return leg, in north London on May 5, Arsenal becomes a machine: 59.2% probability of local victory, only 13.3% for Atlético. If the Metropolitano ends in a draw or a mattress victory, the semifinal becomes a different match.

The precedent of the quarters adds arguments to the red and white optimism: Atlético eliminated Barcelona —who was a clear favoritewith a 62.1% probability according to the same model— thanks to impeccable tactical performance in both games. Simeone has already shown that he knows how to win European qualifiers that he shouldn’t win. The question is whether he can repeat it against the best team on the continent for Elo purposes.

What the model tells us and what it cannot say

Elo models measure strength accumulated over months. They do not measure the state of form of the last week, the absences, the competitive hunger or the ability of a coach to prepare for a specific match.. Arsenal has been the team with the highest rating in Europe for six months, but it is also true that in the Champions League they have suffered more than expected – they only beat Sporting 1-0 on aggregate -, that they arrive with certain duas and that they accumulate a strong mental and physical wear and tear in their fight for the Premier.

Meanwhile, Bayern has reached these semifinals with a display of power against Real Madrid (6-4 on aggregate) but also demonstrating vulnerabilities. An irregular Madrid this season had him on the ropes. For its part, PSG looks better every day and Atlético has shown that predictions are not in their favor.

The numbers say Bayern and Arsenal. Football will say what it wants.